摘要
从对外贸易理论视角出发,构建了人民币实际有效汇率与外贸、外资联动影响一国不同地区经济增长的简单机理模型,利用1986—2003年中国相关数据,运用3LS回归法对模型进行了估计。研究证明,实际有效汇率变动对一国总体经济增长有长期的影响,但对一国内部不同地区的经济增长速度影响存在差异,人民币汇率升值有利于减缓我国地区经济差距加剧的趋势。在人民币汇率合理变动即实现外部均衡的同时,我们还需注意兼顾国家总体经济增长和内部各地区经济增长的平衡发展。
This paper starts with the theory of international trade, building an empirical model which includes real effective exchange rate of RMB, foreign trade and FDI. Then, by erecting a Simultaneous Equations Models-3LS, the paper does a calibration with the data of China. It concludes that the fluctuation of exchange rate would have important impacts on economic growth of the country, but the growth rates of different regions are different. The appreciation of RMB is able to improve the disparity of regional economic growth in China and vice versa, which proves the forementioned theoretical analysis to be true. Finally, it believes that under the background of the rational fluctuations of RMB＇s exchange rate, which leads to exterior economic equilibrium in China, we should attach equal importance to general economic growth of the country and economic growth of different regions within it.
出处
《西北师大学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第6期125-130,共6页
Journal of Northwest Normal University(Social Sciences)
关键词
实际有效汇率
对外贸易
地区经济增长差异
联立方程
real effective exchange rate
foreign trade
disparity of Regional economic growth
Simultaneous Equations Models
