摘要
目前,湖南省人地矛盾日益突出,研究土地人口承载力为湖南省的重大发展决策提供科学依据。利用湖南省1978—2004年的统计和普查数据,采用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和一元回归分析模型对湖南省未来年份的耕地面积、粮食产量等进行了预测,分析了土地人口承载力状况,研究表明在小康型和富裕型消费水平下,湖南省人口数出现超载,为此提出了提高土地人口承载力的对策和措施。
An increasingly prominent contradiction exists between people and land in Hunan Province, and a study of land carrying capacity will provide scientific foundation for the decision of important policies. Based on the statistical data during 1978-2004 in Hunan Province and using the Grey System Model and linear regression model, this paper analyzes land resources and the utilization of the land resources in Hunan Province, predicts the cultivated land area, population and grain yield in the coming years and gets the land carrying capacity for population of Hunan Province. The research indicates that the population of the province has surpassed the carrying capacity; therefore, the paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the land carrying capacity for population of Hunan Province.
出处
《国土资源科技管理》
2006年第5期57-60,共4页
Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources
关键词
土地人口承载力
灰色系统模型
湖南省
land carrying capacity for population
grey system mode
Hunan Province
