摘要
文章运用协整和误差修正模型对1982-2004年间我国长期静态和短期动态的货币需求函数进行了实证研究。研究结果表明，我国长期货币需求与其决定变量之间存在稳定的协整关系，短期动态货币需求函数稳定性较差，M2需求函数的稳定性不及M1需求函数；在长期货币需求函数中，外国利率与M2之间相关性较M1显著；而在短期货币需求函数中，本币利率与M2之间的相关性较M1显著。其政策含义是，短期操作应提高利率调控当前经济过热，长期选择则是货币供应量不再适宜作为我国货币政策的中介目标，通胀目标制值得借鉴。
The paper applies the co-integration and error correction model to empirically study on the China＇s long-run and short-run monetary demand functions from 1982 to 2004. It turns out that there exists the stable co-integration relation between China＇s long-run monetary demands and its decisive variables. The stability of the short-run dynamic monetary demand function is poor, and the stability of M2 demand function is no more than M1 demand function＇s. Moreover, the correlation between foreign interest rate and M2 is more obvious than M1, the correlation between foreign interest rate and M2 is more obvious than M1. Its policy intension of the conclusions is that it should raise interest rate to adjust hot economy in the short term, and monetary supply is fit to the medium target of China＇s monetary policy; the inflation targeting is a worthy lesson in the long term.
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第10期17-25,34,共10页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
上海市哲学社会科学"十一五"规划项目(2006BJL009)
关键词
货币需求函数稳定性
长期货币需求
短期动态货币需求
国际资本流动
monetary demand function＇ s stability
long-run monetary demand
shout-run monetary demand
international capital flow
