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印尼Mw9.0地震的短临地电波(声波:潮汐力谐振共振波,HRT波)波动前兆——HRT波法进行短临地震准确预测可能性的探讨 被引量:13

HRT Wave Precursor to the Sumatra Earthquake: the Feasibility of Accurate Earthquake Prediction
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摘要 新研制的抗干扰高精度PS100大地电测仪器系统,在中国川滇地区的台站上记录到印尼Mw9.0海啸地震的地电前兆。本文将分析论证地电前兆的波动特性,特别是其传播规律。在印尼地震前约3个月开始出现周期等于潮汐力周期(如MSf、K1、M2等)、振幅异常增大的地电潮汐力谐振波(Harmonie waves driven by tidal frces,简称HT波);地震前2天(北京时2004年12月24日10时)出现地电潮汐力共振波(Resonance waves driven by tidal frces,简称RT波)。RT波有纵波和横波,初步确定纵波速度V1≈307km/h;横波速度Vt≈126km/h,是一种在地壳多孔岩石孔隙流体中传播的声波。其固有振动周期T0=4~5h;其振幅很大达2.9%(超出观测标准偏差17倍),异常极为显著;峰值异常尖锐,Q≈8.3。与地震同时从震源发出的RT波为断层破裂所激发,故推断地震前2天所出现的RT波系Mw9.0地震震源区断层前期破裂所致。在可预见的将来,根据震前RT波出现的时间,台站所记纵、横波的到时差及T0,对强震在震前1~3天定量预测其三要素(如果有一布设合理的PS100台网)是可能的。 Four sets measurement system, have of PS100, a newly developed anti-interference high-precision geoelectric been stationed in Sichuan and Yunnan and recorded the harmonic resonance waves of geoelectricity driven by tidal forces (HRT wave ) prior to the Mw9.0 Sumatra earthquake. At resonance T = T0, where the wattless component of the impedance is equal to zero, the RT wave peak will be very large, sharp and an earthquake will impend within 1~3 days. As preliminarily estimated, the phase velocity of the RT longitudinal waves is V1 = 507 km/h and the virtual wave veoc-ity Vv = ( V1 × Vt )/( V1 - Vt ) is 207 km/h. Hence, as long as the arrival time difference of the 2 RT waves at one station is known, it is possible to calculate the epicentral distance of a coming earthquake quantitatively. For the Sumatra earthquake, the free period of oscillation is T0 = 4 ~ 5 h, from which the magnitude of the coming earthquake can be determined. Both the arrival time difference and the virtual wave velocity during and before the earthquake are almost equal to each other, the RT waves during the earthquake were emitted by the fault failure, and the RT waves appearing 2 days before the earthquake were emitted by the early failure of the fault in the hypocenter region of the earthquake. If we have a reasonably designed the PS100 network, it will be possible to quantitatively predict the three elements of a coming earthquake.
出处 《国际地震动态》 2006年第8期6-21,共16页 Recent Developments in World Seismology
关键词 PS100地电仪 印尼Mw9.0级地震 HRT波动前兆 虚波速度(207 km/h) 地震的准确预测 PS100 system the Mw9.0 Sumatra earthquake HRT wave precursor virtual wave relovity (207 km/h) accurate earthquake prediction
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