摘要
季度用电量同时具有增长性和季节波动性二重趋势,而灰色GM(1,1)预测模型只能反映用电量的总体变化趋势,不能很好反映其季节性波动变化的具体特征。提出灰色GM(1．1)用电最预测模型的改进模型——灰色季节变动指数模型GSI(1,1)模型,将灰色预测方法与季节指数有机结合起来。算例表明,与灰色预测方法相比,GSI(1,1)模型具有更强的适应性和更高的预测精度,适用于季节性用电量预测。
The seasonal electricity demand possesses dual property of increasement and seasonal fluctuation simultaneously. GM （1,1） model reflects the general trend of the electricity demand while fails to reflect the characteristics of seasonal fluctuation. The paper proposes the improved model of GM （1,1） model which is called GSI（ 1,1 ）. GSI（ 1,1 ） model is the combination of grey system and seasonal index. The forecasting results demonstrate that the GSI （1,1） model has higher adaptability and forecast precision for seasonal electricity demand forecasting. It suits seasonal electricity demand forecasting.
出处
《电力需求侧管理》
北大核心
2006年第5期17-19,共3页
Power Demand Side Management
关键词
用电量预测
灰色理论
季节指数
electricity demand forecasting
grey theory
seasonal index
