摘要
目的根据2003年上半年我国SARS流行的地域与时空特征,分析SARS流行与相关环境因素的关系。方法基于逻辑信息法,利用GIS的空间分类与空间分析功能,并结合统计学方法,对影响SARS流行的环境因素进行筛选与确定,计算相关程度及疫情等级。结果SARS流行与所选21个环境因素不同程度地存在相关性,其中人发钾含量偏低(0.723)与人口流动性大(0.634)影响较大;对10个行政区的预测结果与实际疫情吻合率达87.5%。结论SARS流行与某些环境因素有关,基于GIS技术和逻辑信息法的SARS流行环境因素分析与预测是可行的、可信的。
Objective To analyze the relation between the epidemic of SARS （Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome） and the correlative environmental factors based on the regionally and spatio- temporal characters of SARS epidemic in 2003. Methods Based on the logical information method, to filter and confirm the environmental factors which can affect the epidemic of SARS by using the spatial classification and spatial analysis of GIS and integrating the statistical method, and then to calculate the dependence extent and the grade of epidemic situation. Results The 21 environmental factors are related to the epidemic of SARS respectively in different extent, the low K content in human hair and the high mobility of population,whose dependence extent respectively are 0. 723 and 0. 634, are the two most greatest factors. The consistency between the forecast to 10 provinces and the real epidemic situation reach 87.5 per cent. Conclusion The epidemic of SARS is related to some environmental factors. The analysis and forecast to the epidemic of SARS based on GIS and the logical information method are feasible and believable.
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第4期301-305,共5页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
:湖南省自然科学基金项目(03JJY3067)
中南大学SARS专项科研基金项目
关键词
逻辑信息法
SARS
GIS
环境因素
空间分析
Logical information method, SARS, GIS, Environmental factor, Spatial analysis
