摘要
对1949?2002年北部湾乌雷站台风浪和风暴增水的数值模拟结果进行分析,得出54a的台风浪和风暴增水的极值序列,作出二者联合概率分布图,其分布近似于指数分布,进而运用GUMBELⅡ联合概率分布函数对其拟合,在找出联合概率分布函数过程中分析得出了台风浪和风暴增水不同重现期的单要素极值和联合分布要素极值及相应概率(具体给出),其结果对海洋工程设计有一定的参考价值。
In this paper, by employing the numerical simulation results of typhoon wave and storm surge from 1949 to 2002 of the Wulei station at the Beibu Bay, their extreme-values of time series of 54 years were obtained. We found that the distribution of joint probability between the extreme-values of typhoon wave and storm surge is an exponential distribution, then we use GUMBEL II joint probability function to fit to it. During finding out the function, we got extreme-values of typhoon wave, storm surge, their extreme-values of joint probability distribution of different recurrence periods and corresponding probabilities, respectively. The result was perfect, and of some reference value to marine engineering design.
出处
《海洋通报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第4期23-28,共6页
Marine Science Bulletin
关键词
北部湾
乌雷站
台风浪
风暴增水
联合概率
Beibu Bay
Wulei station
typhoon wave
storm surge
joint probability
