摘要
运用灰色系统分析方法预测城市建设用地是可行的．为满足建模要求，应以城市建设用地存量为基础，采用累加方法建立生成数列．１９９１～２０００年重庆市建设用地预测模型为Ｘｔ＋１＝１１５６２６．４５３ｅ８．８９４３８２９４１ｔ－１０４５７２．０５３８平均每年城市建设用地增量为１７２７．８８ｈｍ２，预测结果符合该市土地利用总体规划控制目标．
It is available to precdict the urban building-land by the analytical method of gray system. In or der to form the predicting model, the preservative area of the urban buiding-land is put as the basis on which the growsing line is formed by summation. In Chongqing city, the Predicting modet of urban building-land from 1991 to 2000 is that X(1)(t+1)=115 626. 453 8e0.094382941t-104 572. 053 8, and the mean growing area of urban building-land is 1728. 88 hm2 in one year. This predictive result accords complelely with the controling aim of the land use planning of Chongqing city.
出处
《西南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
1996年第4期374-380,共7页
Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)
关键词
建设用地
预测模型
灰色系统
重庆市
building land
predicting model
gray system
Chongqing city
