摘要
国外从20世纪60年代开始研究降水、气温等天气变量的随机模拟模型,90年代以后,许多国家都建立了可应用于水文、生态、作物生长和土壤侵蚀等模型系统的随机天气生成器。在分析研究有关文献的基础上,系统介绍国外天气生成器的发展历程、建模思路、基本结构和模拟方法,以及模型的评估方法和模拟精度,阐述当前天气生成器存在的问题和研究热点,同时,从气象资料的积累、气候统计学研究成果和相关模型研究发展等角度,评述我国天气生成器研究的基础条件、研究现状和需求前景。
Weather generator （stochastic weather simulation model） is able to simulate stochastic process of weather variations of different time scales, and which is necessary to establish soil erosion models. The stochastic weather generator of precipitation and temperature has been researched outside China since 1960＇s. In the past decades, several weather generators have been developed for different purposes and many researches were conducted on how to improve them. The theories and structures of weather generators, the methods of estimating model parameters, and the ways to evaluate model were reviewed. Problems, difficulties, and existing issues in the field were discussed. From the point of accumulation of weather datum, investigation achievements on climatic statistics and development of relative models etc., the basic condition, actuality and requirement foreground are commented.
出处
《中国水土保持科学》
CSCD
2006年第3期103-108,共6页
Science of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目"建立适合我国不同气候条件的随机天气模拟计算机系统"(40401033)
北京林业大学振兴计划人才培养专项课题(200302008)
关键词
土壤侵蚀
随机
天气生成器
随机天气模型
soil erosion
model weather generator
stochastic weather model
