摘要
目的建立一种适合上海市社区居民经济有效的无症状糖尿病人群筛查方法。方法在上海市社区人群糖尿病流行病学调查基础上,选择目标人群进行危险因素记分法及Logistic回归模型法。训练组用于危险因素记分法及Logistic回归模型法的建立,采用Logistic回归分析筛选糖尿病危险因素,根据危险因素的OR值及β值,计算个体累计分值和发病概率,以测试组的资料验证2种方法进行人群筛查的真实性和可靠性,并对2种方法的效率和效益进行比较。结果当以累计分值为18作为判别的阈值时,危险因素记分法的灵敏度为61.22%,特异度为80.40%。当以累计发病概率0.05作为判别的阈值时,Logistic回归模型法的灵敏度为67.35%,特异度为76.19%。结论2种筛查方法在筛查效果上差异无统计学意义。但是,危险因素记分法在实际工作中具有较大的应用价值,可作为糖尿病人群筛查的第一线方法。
Objective To establish an economical and effective screening method for undiagnosed diabetes in Shanghai.Methods Based on an epidemiological survey of diabetes mellitus in the community populalion in Shanghai, target-population was selected to develop risk factors scoring method and logistic regression model. The target-population was divided training group and testing group. Logistic regression analysis on the original data of training group was carried out to screen the main risk factors of diabetes mellitus. The score of the variables was determined based on the 10·β value and the aggregate score and aggregate incidence were used to predict the risk of undiagnosed diabetes. The validity and reliability of two methods were validated and compared based on the original data of testing group. Results When the threshold value was set up at 18, both sensitivity and specificity of risk factors scoring method for identifying undiagnosed diabetes were 61.33% and 80.40% respectively. When the threshold value was set up at 0.05, both sensitivity and specificity of logistic regression model were for identifying undiagnosed diabetes were 67.35% and 76.19% respectively. Conclusion The screening effect between risk factors scoring method and logistic regression model were no significant. The risk factors scoring method could serve as an effective and useful tool for mass screening of diabetes mellitus.
出处
《中国公共卫生》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第6期687-689,共3页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
基金
上海市医学发展基金资助项目(01ZD001)
