摘要
本文通过对财政变量的替代效应及互补效应的分析,系统地研究了中国政府特殊公共支出体系各组成部分与GDP之间的长期动态关系,并利用方差分解技术具体分离了政府公共支出各组成部分对GDP的增长效应。通过实证研究我们认为,政府购买支出表现出一定的互补性、对经济的长期增长有一定的解释能力,而预算外支出、政府基础设施投资则表现出一定的替代性,对经济的长期增长解释能力十分有限。
This paper presents the analytical results of substitution and complementary effect of fiscal changes, by systematically analyzes the long-term relationship between components of Chinese government's special public expenditures and GDP. It also applies the variation decomposition technique to totally isolate the growth effect of components in government's public expenditures on GDP. From the empirical analysis, we concluded that the government's purchase expenditure has a significant explanatory power on the long-term economic growth. However, extra-budget expenditure has a substitution effect with the government's infrastructure investments, which has only a limited im- pact on the long-term economical growth.
出处
《数理统计与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第3期264-272,共9页
Journal of Applied Statistics and Management
基金
国家社科基金项目(05BJY043)
关键词
政府公共支出
替代效应和互补效应
方差分解
Government public spending
Substituiton effect and complementary effect
Decomposition