摘要
根据近20年来由历史文献、冰心、孢粉、湖泊沉积等多种代用资料恢复的历史时期气候变化状况,对中国2 kaBP前后的气候变化及其可能影响以及驱动机制进行了综合推断,结果表明:2 kaBP前后,中国的气候发生了明显的变化,在温度变化方面,新疆地区由寒冷转为温暖,其余地区由温暖转为寒冷;在降水变化上,北方大部分地区降水量下降,干旱化趋势明显,南方地区降水量变化不大,仍然比较丰富。此期,自然灾害增多,农业生产范围缩小,人口数量减少,政局不稳定,甚至出现政权更迭等社会不稳定事件。太阳活动、大气环流和火山活动可能是引起此次气候变化的重要原因。
Climate of a long-term history can provide valuable insights into the envelope of climate variability on time scales of significance to society today. Based on some palaeoclimatic records such as ice-cores, pollens, lake sediments, stalagmites and Chinese historical documentary records, the climate change around 2 kaBP is synthesized and its possible effects are also explored. The results show an obvious climate change both in temperature and precipitation. The main conclu sions are as follows：
（1） Around 2 kaBP in the Xinjiang Region,there is a temperature change from cold to warm,while in the other regions of China, there is a change from warm to cold.
（2） There is a discrepancy in the change in precipitation compared with the change in temperature. It shows a pervasive decrease in precipitation in most parts of northern China,while in southern China there was not an obvious change at the same time. It still tended to be wet there.
（3）This climate change contributed greatly to the instability of the West Han Dynasty,and coincided with many social events as well as an increase in several kinds of natural calamities, such as floods, droughts, grasshopper disaster, the shrinking of suitable cultivatable land and an obvious decrease of the population.
（4） This climate change around 2 kaBP may be driven by solar activity, atmospheric circulation and volcanic activities. During this period,the solar activity was relatively weak. Also in this period there were several volcanic eruptions both in China and foreign countries. Both of these factors may have led the climate to be cold and dry in most parts of China.
（5）This climate change proves that even in a warm period an abrupt climate change may take place just as in the cold periods. And it also provides evidence that the climate change in China is in phase with some other regions in the world. This knowledge can help us to take adaptive measures for future global change.
出处
《海洋地质与第四纪地质》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第2期123-131,共9页
Marine Geology & Quaternary Geology
基金
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(KZCX3-SW-321)
