摘要
沈阳市降水概率预报服务系统是在日本数值预报的基础上应用多种统计方法建立MOS预报方程,对其预报结果应用概率回归集成制作降水概率预报。TS评分结果表明:MOS预报的降水确率高于日本数值预报,MOS集成预报的结果在各种MOS预报结果平均偏上的水平。概率预报的Brier评分结果表明:在MOS综合基础上的概率回归(REEP)方法得出的概率预报结果较为理想。
Shenyang precipitation probability forecasting service system could provide with precipitation probability prediction, based on REEP method and MOS forecasting equations from Japanese numerical weather prediction production and multiple statistical methods. TS verification technique indicated that the accuracy of forecasting precipitation from MOS forecasting equations was higher than that from Japanese numerical weather prediction. The accuracy of forecasting precipitation from MOS integration forecast was higher than that from the average one of all kinds of the statistical methods. The Brier verification technique of forecasting precipitation probability showed that REEP method based on several MOS forecast methods could give the best prediction.
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2006年第1期68-71,共4页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
关键词
MCIS预报
MOS预报集成
概率预报
TS评分
Brier评分
MOS forecast
Integrated MOS forecast
Precipitation probability forecast
TS verification technique
Brier verification technique
