摘要
本文利用计量经济学方法,对我国1978-2003年的国内生产总值(GDP)及固定资产投资两时间序列数据进行了协整关系检验、误差修正模型(ECM)分析和Granger因果检验。结果表明:我国的固定资产投资对经济增长有很大的拉动作用,当年的固定资产投资增加1个百分点,国内生产总值约增加0.89个百分点;并且二者之间还存在着长期稳定关系和双向的因果关系。
Based on the data of GDP and investment in fixed assets of China from 1978 to 2003, this paper analyzes the relationship between the two variables by using econometrics methods such as cointegration test, error correction model and Granger-causality Test. The empirical result shows that there exists bidirectional causality and long-run steady relationship between investment in fixed-assets and the economic growth of China.
关键词
固定资产投资
经济增长
协整
ECM
GRANGER因果检验
Investment in fixed assets
Economic growth
Cointegration
Error correction model
Granger-causality test
