摘要
据板块运动及构造动力的因果关系研究了我国华北地区6级以上与日本海沟地区7级以上地震活动的关系,结果表明,两个地区群体地震活动在时间轴上的不均匀分布及起伏具有一定的同步性,且华北地区的群体地震活动的开始时间晚于日本海沟地区;日本海沟地区发生的M_S≥7.3地震后3a内,在华北地区相应发生6级以上地震,其对应率为61％。由相对应地震之间的时间间隔计算华北地区3a内发生6级以上地震的经验概率为53％。其结果对华北地区地震活动大形势的预测具有实用意义。
Based on the relation between plate movement and tectonodynamics, we studied the relation of seismic activity between earthquakes in North China(Ms≥ 6. 0) and Japan Sea Trench(Ms≥7.0). The result shows that the inhomogeneous distribution and undulations of group seismicity have certain synchronism in these two regions. Furthermore, the beginning time of group seismicity in North China is latter than that in Japan Sea Trench. During the 3 Years' period after an Ms≥7 earthquake occurred in Japan Sea Trench region, the correspondence rate for Ms≥6.0 erthquake occurrence in North China is 61%. Using the time intervals between corresponding earthquakes, we calculated the empirical probability of Ms≥6.0 earthquakes that will occur in North China in 3 years. The result is 53%. The result of this paper is of practical function in predicting the trend of seismic activity in North China.
出处
《地震》
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第3期219-224,共6页
Earthquake
关键词
地震
华北地区
日本
海沟地震
相关性
North China, Japan Sea Trench, Seismic activity, Correlation analy- sis
