摘要
根据云南省地质灾害综合研究成果,作者架构了云南省地质灾害预报预警模型方法。认为,影响地质灾害活动的因素是气象、地理、地质因素,相互交织,自然与社会因素相互叠加。地质灾害系统是一个开放的、复杂的灾害系统。在对影响地质灾害发生因素分析的基础上,可以利用相应的预测模型,对给定区域内发生地质灾害的危险度做出预测。建立模型的程序是:(1)区域地质灾害综合调查;(2)研究区域内地质灾害分布与地形(高程、坡度)、水系、工程地质岩组、地质构造形迹、人类工程活动、降雨量分布和地震活动的统计分析;(3)创建概念模型和数学模型;(4)确定危险度指数和预报等级。
According to the practice of geo-hazards prediction in Yunnan Province, a model of early-warning for geo-hazards is introduced in this paper. This model considers the factor influencing geological hazards, such as weather, geography, geology and interlaced natural and social factors, because geo-hazards are very complex, the risk of geo-hazard can be predicted using corresponding early-warning model on the basis of analyzing the inducing factors of geo-hazards. Procedures of establishing the model is ① comprehensive investigation of regional geo-hazard; ②distribution of geo-hazard and influencing factors, such as land form （altitude and degree of slope ）, hydrographical net, soilsand rocks, geological structure, rainfall, etc; ③setting up conceptual model and mathematical model;④ grading risk degree and issuing earlywarning.
出处
《中国地质灾害与防治学报》
CSCD
2006年第1期40-42,共3页
The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control
关键词
地质灾害
预报预警
模型
危险度
云南省
geological hazard
prediction and prewarning；model
risk factor
Yunnan province
