摘要
本文对１９５１～１９９２年期间发生的厄尔尼诺、反厄尔尼诺的前期冬季、秋季的１００ｈＰａ、５００ｈＰａ北半球环流及我国的气温、降水场进行了合成分析。结果表明，前冬季５００ｈＰａ环流差异明显，主要特征是厄尔尼诺发生前中、西太平洋地区高度负异常；阿留申、堪察加５００ｈＰａ高度正异常，呈强的正ＷＰ遥相关型。同时，前冬期我国降水偏少、气温偏低，盛行强东亚冬季风。指出了具有这些特征的高相关区。所得的结果为早期预测厄尔尼诺事件提供了有价值的信息。
In this study we compositely analyzes the Northern Hemisphere winter and autumn 100 hPa and 500 hPa circulation and temperature and precepitation fields in China in the winter of the year preceding the EI Nino and Anti--EI Nino events during the year of 1951 ￣ 1992 and Student's t-statistics are calculated. Results show that there is significant discrepance in the 500 hPa circulation in the previous winter, characterized mainly by a vigorous WP teleconnection pattern and highly nagative anomaly in the central and Western Pacific and highly positive anomaly over Aleutians and Kamchatka. Meanwhile China experiences scanty rainfall, low temperature, strong East Asian winter monsoon and high correlation area with all the characterictic fertures. The results obtained provide valuable information for early prediction of EI Nino events.
出处
《大气科学》
CSCD
北大核心
1996年第3期337-342,共6页
Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
"八五"短期气候预测理论与方法及气象基金
