摘要
将东南沿海地区划分成７个地震区带，利用历史及现代地震资料，运用混合极值理论及最大似然法分析了各个地震区带的地震危险性，并采用预测检验的方法确定了各个地震区带的危险阈值，对各地震区未来两年的中小地震及未来５年的中强地震的危险性分别给出了定量估计。
In this paper we divided the southeast coastal area of China into seven seimic zones according to the spatial distribution of earthquake, and used the Gumbel mixture extreme value distribution Gmix to estimate the seismic risk of the seven zones in future five years using historical and modern earthquake data. The maximum likelihood method was. used in estimating the six extremal distribution parameters of Gmix. The data from the 1970 to 1994in each zone was divided into five intervals according to a five-year interval for each zone and the forcasting accuracy and threshold values for each seismic zone were tested for each zone in each interval. The quantity of risks of strong earthquake in future five years for each zone and the risks of medium earthquake in future two years were calculated and the tendency of medium and strong earthquake in southeast coastal area of China in future two-five years was discussed .
出处
《华南地震》
1996年第1期10-15,共6页
South China Journal of Seismology
关键词
趋势预测
极值模型
最大似然法
地震
危险性
Trend prediction, Extremal model, Maximum likelihood method,Southeast Coastal Area of China
