摘要
M2/GDP通常用来衡量一个国家的经济货币化水平。近年来,我国的M2/GDP畸高并逐年上升,M2/GDP水平不仅大于发达国家,还远远高于类似的发展中国家。文章在综合前人的研究结果的基础上,通过建立多元线性回归模型对我国M2/GDP过高的影响因素进行实证的分析。实证分析表明,我国M2/GDP畸高的原因是:金融市场不完善,总储蓄率高居不下,广义货币流通速度急剧下降以及国家债务负担沉重。在此基础上,文章将提出遏制M2/GDP风险的建议与措施,并对实证研究的贡献与不足之处进行总结。
M2/GDP is commonly used to analyze the level of an country＇s monetarization level. Recently, the M2/GDP of China has reached an unusually high point, which is not only higher than developed counties, but also higher than developing countries in the similar seedtime. The article would try to build a multiple linear regression model to analyze the factors which cause the high M2/GDP in China. The empirical study reveals the factors that cause the unusually high M2/GDP are： undeveloped financial market, high deposit ratio, low velocity of money circulation and heavy national debt. On the basis of above analysis, the article would propose practical countermeasure and suggestions to keep M2/GDP in limits, and finally summarize the innovations and limitations of the empirical study.
出处
《华东经济管理》
2006年第1期39-42,共4页
East China Economic Management
