摘要
在农户行为方式及其特征分析的基础上,探讨了农户行为对三峡库区柑桔产业发展的影响。其中,农户收益与脐橙种植规模关系的拟合方程为:lny=49.28+10.524 lnx(R2=0.975**),与锦橙种植规模关系的拟合方程为:lny=45.106+9.251 lnx(R2=0.90**)。分析结果表明,无论是锦橙还是脐橙,柑桔种植面积和单位面积收益均呈显著正相关。利用多元回归分析,脐橙农户收入与管理关系拟合方程:y=-1604.38+238.7614X2+535.4469X3+395.4653X4-218.327X5,锦橙农户收入与果园管理关系拟合方程:y=-221.71+130.9762X1+81.83X4+91.21X5。结果表明,果农对柑桔园的科学管理以及对新知识的接受程度都影响着农户收益。种植规模是影响三峡库区农户行为的最关键因素,也是影响三峡库区柑桔产业发展的最关键因素。因此,扩大果农的种植规模是保证三峡库区柑桔产业可持续发展的重要举措。
The effect of citrus grower＇s activities on the citrus industry in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was statistically analyzed. The relationship between growers＇ income and their orchard sizes of navel orange was fitted as ：In y=49.28＋10. 524 In x（R^2 =0. 975^＊＊ ）. Similarly, growers who grow jin oranges could expect their income by fitting their orchard sizes into the formula In y=45.106＋9. 251 In x（R^2 =0.90^＊＊ ）. This result indicated that the income per unit area was positively correlated with grower＇s orchard size. The relationship between the income of navel orange growers and their orchard management activities was y=-1604.38＋238. 7614X2＋535.4469X3＋395.4653X4-218.327X5, and in case of jin orange it was y=-221.71＋130.9762X1＋81.83X4＋91.21X5. Apparently, the levelof orchard management and the acceptance of new knowledge of a grower would significantly affect his income. Between the two influencing factors, orchard size had a greater effect than orchard management activities on a grower＇s income. Based on this study, it is suggested to take important actions to expand the growers＇ planting scale to achieve a sustainable development of the citrus industry in the Three Gorges Area.
出处
《中国南方果树》
北大核心
2006年第1期1-5,共5页
South China Fruits
关键词
三峡库区
柑桔园
种植规模
果农行为
经济效益
The Three Gorges Area
Citrus orchard
Planting scale
Orchard management
Economic returns
