摘要
研究了反映与烃源岩生烃相关的地质参数的不确定性及在一定勘探风险约束下确定生烃量的概率统计方法.对烃源岩有机质生烃的相关参数做马尔可夫概型分析,根据参数的概型分布特征及在原始数据的约束下随机抽样,用抽样数据模拟计算生烃量;经过多次抽样模拟计算,统计生烃量的概率分布规律,得到在不同概率下的生烃量.与确定性评价结果相比,用化学动力学方法和模拟实验法计算的生烃量分别对应着用概率统计法得到的75%和100%的概率,即从风险角度分析,有75%的把握相信区内的生烃量不会小于化学动力学方法的评价结果,而区内的生烃量不会小于模拟实验的评价结果.
In order to evaluate the reliability computing hydrocarbon generating quantity of source rock,we researched and applied a probability statistics method which may reflect the uncertainty of geology parameters and the exploration risks.Firstly,we analyzed the probability distribution of parameters related to source rock by Markov method.Secondly,we carried out random sampling according to the probability distribution and restricting with the raw data.Thirdly,we computed the hydrocarbon generating quantity with the data of samples.Through repetition of the second and the third step,we found a statistical rule and gained the hydrocarbon generating quantity of source rock in different probability.We computed the hydrocarbon generating quantity of superficial-middle layer in Binbei area of Songliao basin with the method.Compared with method of chemical kinetics,its reliability may achieve 75%,and compared with method of simulation experiment,its reliability may achieve 100%.It can be an auxiliary method during evaluating exploration risk.
出处
《大庆石油学院学报》
CAS
北大核心
2005年第6期11-13,共3页
Journal of Daqing Petroleum Institute
基金
黑龙江省杰出青年基金项目(200003)
关键词
烃源岩
生烃量
概率统计
马尔可夫概型分析
模拟计算
source rock
hydrocarbon generating quantity
probability statistics
Markov probability distribution
simulation computation
