摘要
建立了江汉平原水稻单产变化的Logistic模型,通过对模型的微分方程离散化处理,得到一个一次函数。由于原始数据具有较强的随机波动性,通过对其指数平滑处理,再进行回归分析,得出模型中参数的估计值。最后对模型进行分析,得出现阶段江汉平原水稻单产的最大潜力和水稻增产速度最快的时间段。对指导江汉平原水稻生产、优化农业产业结构具有现实意义。
A Logistic model of the per-squaremetre-yield changes of rice in Jianghan Plain was set up.By dispersing to take treatment differential and equational model,it receives a linear function.Because initial data have stronger random fluctuation,by dealing with its index levelly and smoothly,and again analysing the model,it gets the estimated value of the parameter in the models.Finally,through analyzing the modle,the most potentiali- ty of Jianghan Plain rice per squaremetre yield increase and the fastest increase period in of the rice production were obtained.It will have realistic signifancances to guide rice pro- duction in Jianghan Plain,and optimize the structure of agricultural industry.
出处
《长江大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2005年第11期99-102,共4页
Journal of Yangtze University(Natural Science Edition)
