摘要
传统网络计划边长是固定的,而实际的建筑工程工序持续时间受到诸多偶然因素的影响而呈动态变化.提出随机边长的“柔性网络计划”模型,依据Monte Carlo模拟的基本原理,以Microsoft Visual Basic.Net2005 Beta为平台,开发相应模拟分析软件,以实际工程案例研究其可行性.认为:柔性网络计划可以提供总工期的变化范围,给出所有工序成为关键工序的概率,为工程决策提供更多信息.
Traditional network plan, with the duration for every activity being fixed, is not suitable for actual construction management, because in actual project cases, the duration of every activity varies with many occasional factors. A model called “flexible network” is put forward. Flexible network, simulating the random variation of the duration of every activity, can reveal the scope of total time and the probability of certain activity on Critical Path. On the basis of the model, the paper studies the algrithem of Monte Carlo for computer simulation and a rather practical program is developed with “Microsoft Visual Basic. NET 2005 Beta”.
出处
《河南科学》
2005年第6期849-851,共3页
Henan Science
基金
河南省科技攻关计划项目(991150122)
关键词
网络计划
柔性网络
概率模型
计算机仿真
network planning
flexible network planning
probability model
computer simulation
