摘要
对1997～2004年长江口凤鲚捕捞量建模进行了研究,对多个相关因子分别建立了多元回归模型和GM(1,1)模型。最优回归预测方程为Y=-0.9933+0.4547X1+0.8617X2+0.6117X3;最优时间响应函数为X1(t+1)=-60.3823e-0.0169t+61.4493。多元回归预测模型适合于以丰富的参数精确预测当期捕捞量,而GM(1,1)预测模型则可以少量参数对捕捞量进行中长期初步预测,两者结合可以加强对凤鲚捕捞的科学管理。
Studies on yield modeling of Coilia mystus in the Yangtze River estuary were carried out during 1997～2004.In this paper multi-regression model and GM （1,1） based on several related factors were set up. The optimal regression equation was Y=-0.9933＋0.4547X1＋0.8617X2＋0.6117X3 and the best response function of time was X1 （t＋1）=-60.3823 e-^-0.0169t＋61.4493.It showed that multi-regression model was suitable for current prediction by plentiful parameters and GM（1,1） was fit for primary prediction by few parameters in long-term. Scientific management of Coilia mystus can be strengthened by two models.
出处
《浙江海洋学院学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2005年第3期262-266,共5页
Journal of Zhejiang Ocean University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国务院三峡办中国三峡工程开发公司基金(SX07-01)
关键词
长江口
凤鲚
多元回归模型
灰色模型
Yangtze River estuary
Coilia mystus
multi-regression model
GM
