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世界液化天然气运输市场回顾与展望(续)

The LNG market
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摘要 Drewry在满足客户个性化需求的咨询项目上具备丰富的经验、在其建业的三十年中, Drewry为来自逾80个国家的客户提供了优质的咨询服务。Drewry咨询公司是位于伦敦的国际海事业独立组织的重要组成部分。创始于1970年,她作为一间值得信赖的专业顾问公司,在国际海运界享有盛誉。同时,Drewry也以其独树一帜的海运信息及相关研究而广为业界赞誉。今天,她本着创新与务实并存的态度,建立发展了与其全球客户一体化的关系网。在过去的三十年中,Drewry 依靠其国际海运业方面的优势, 及其庞大的内部信息库,广泛的专业人才及丰富的国际经验,在致力为客户度身订作方案的同时,为海运业各界建立了一个知识与人才的网络。 (Continued) As we see the LNG market becoming more international, more LNG production plants being added, and the ongoing cost reductions in the LNG value chain, global demand for LNG should be virtually guaranteed to increase over the medium to long term. We have not included speculative LNG projects, as most of them are unlikely to be up and running by 2010. Against each of the existing and planned projects, an estimate has been made of the number of standard sized ships (138-155,000 cu.m) required to serve it. This would give us around 180 vessels required by 2010 to serve a total of 193 million tons of LNG shipment. The LNG fleet grew around 15% in 2004 with the delivery of 23 vessels. Fleet growth in 2005 will be similar with 21 vessels due to be delivered. Growth is set to be even faster in the future with over 65 new vessels ordered in 2004. With the record number of new orders the orderbook broke through 100 vessels for the first time in September 2004 and represented more than three quarters of the current fleet. As at May 2005. there are a total of 180 LNG vessels, and the orderbook stands at 108 vessels, which is 60% of the current fleet. There is theoretical LNG shipbuilding capacity of around fifty ships per annum (outside the big six we include a further 10 yards who could build 18 of the 50 total). Furthermore, in the timeframe to 2010 some yards are only likely to be candidates for domestic orders. The interest of ship owning companies as opposed to the traditional energy majors and national producers is partly due to the expectation that LNG is going to move more towards the models used in other shipping markets and partly because of a realization that shipping capacity was potentially one of the major bottlenecks in the widely forecast expansion of the industry. This has also led both producers and consumers to try and get control of the shipping element. For Greek shipowners, this is a great opportunity. But there is also the added risk of going from traditional asset play to being an innovativ
出处 《中国远洋航务公告》 2005年第9期28-31,共4页 China Ocean Shipping Monthly
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