摘要
文章通过理论与实证分析阐述了进口对中国经济增长的驱动作用。理论上主要从当前的国际环境及中国的国情两方面论述了适当增加进口的必要性和可行性。实证上则是利用动态分布滞后(ADL)模型对进口与GDP关系进行协整分析并通过建立误差修正模型(ECM)进一步说明进口对中国经济增长的促进作用。最后根据以上分析提出建议:中国应适当增加进口以解决当前存在的贸易问题。
Export and import play a more and more important role in the development of economy as China open more widely. Most of the people think only export can accelerate the economy. However, through mathematical and theoretical analysis, this article finds import also plays an important role in the development of economy. As a result, we should adjust the export and import policy to solve all kinds of existing problems and to accelerate our economic development.
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
2005年第5期71-74,共4页
Journal of Statistics and Information
关键词
进口
经济增长
驱动作用
贸易环境
协整
误差修正模型
Import
Economic growth
Driving effect
Trade environment
Cointegration
Error correction model （ECM）
