摘要
基于安徽省1949-2003年的旱、洪涝灾害统计资料,运用分形理论重构了其嵌入相空间序列,探讨了其时序的分形特征,计算出了分维数。结果表明,安徽省旱、洪涝灾害受灾面积的时序分布具有分形特征,相应的饱和分维数分别为d=2.56和d=3.55。饱和关联维数对应的嵌入空间的最小维数为8。R/S分析结果显示,20世纪80年代以来,安徽省旱、洪涝灾害受灾面积呈扩大态势。
Fractal theory is used to rebuild the embed special dimension serials based on the statistical data of flood and drought damage occurred in Anhui Province from 1949-2003. The time serials is discussed and the fractal dimension is computed. These results indicate that time serials of the flood and drought area has fractal feature. The stable fractal dimension is 2.56 and 3.55. The corresponding minimal dimension of the stable relationship is 8. R/S results indicate that the areas of flood and drought in Anhui Province expand rapidly from 1980s, it provides a base research for building forecast model in the flood and drought damage area.
出处
《安徽农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第4期546-550,共5页
Journal of Anhui Agricultural University
基金
安徽省教育厅自然科学研究项目(2002KJ135ZD)
安徽省重点项目(00021087)资助
关键词
旱
洪涝灾害
分形
时间序列
安徽
flood and drought damage
fractal dimension
time serial
Anhui Province
