摘要
从单一盯住美元到参考一篮子货币,实行以市场供求为基础的、有管理的浮动汇率——我国的汇率制度改革又迈出了重要的一步。本文通过对国际、国内背景分析,认为此次人民币汇率改革有利于改善贸易条件,减少贸易摩擦;有利于抑制通货膨胀,促进资源的合理配置;有利于降低外汇占款对货币政策自主性的干扰等。面对今后更具弹性的人民币汇率机制取向,文章建议相关部门应主动应对人民币进一步升值的预期和国际热钱炒作的压力;央行可通过“一篮子”货币的界定实现汇率调控的灵活性;人民币汇率更趋灵活性将加大央行对外汇市场管理的难度;大力发展远期外汇市场,利用衍生金融工具规避汇率风险。
From pegging solely to USD to a basket of currencies towards a market-based exchange system with a managed float, China's foreign exchange rate system has made another important step in its overhaul. Based on an analysis of international and domestic background, it is believed that the current move will help improve trade conditions, reduce trade frictions; check inflation, allocate resources reasonably and lower the impact of foreign exchange tie-up on monetary policy. Under the backdrop of a more flexible RMB exchange rate system, it is proposed that departments concerned should take the initiative to cope with the pressure from expectation for further appreciation and speculative international hot money, while the central bank may define 'a basket of currencies' to control the float. A more flexible RMB exchange rate will make it harder for the central bank to supervise over the foreign exchange market. Efforts should be made to develop future foreign exchange market on a large scale and financial derivatives should be used to avoid risks.
出处
《金融论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第8期3-8,共6页
Finance Forum
