摘要
从模糊数学和灰色系统理论两个不同角度来分析地震事件，把模糊数学的表达方式用于灰色灾变预测ＧＭ（１，１）中，建立了地震预测的模糊灰色模型。用此模型讨论了南北天山四个区（带）的震级序列，在等维情况下，对比了模糊灰色方法与单纯灰色方法的优劣，讨论了影响预测结果的因素，最后给出了不同目标震级下各区（带）的预测值。
Combining the fuzzy mathematic expression with grey catastrophic predicting method GM (1, 1),seismic events are analyzed then. A fuzzy grey model for seismic prediction is set up to analyze the magnitude sequences that occurred in 4 zones in North and South Tianshan. In equidimensional conditions, merits and demerits of fuzzy -- grey method and pure grey method are compared. Factors that effect the predicting results are discussed as well. At last,predicting values of each zone for different objective magnitudes are given.
出处
《内陆地震》
1995年第4期363-368,共6页
Inland Earthquake
关键词
新疆
模糊数学
灰色系统
地震活动趋势
地震预报
Xinjiang Fuzzy mathematics Grey system Seismicity trend Trend prediction Model establishment
