摘要
我国电力体制改革将竞争引入发电供应商之间。在“厂网分开、竞价上网”的电力市场中,发电厂面临如何确定报价,才能使发电厂获得最大利润的问题。而报价的一个重要指标就是预测电力市场日成交电价,所以电价预测对发电厂的报价决策具有重要意义。该文介绍了电力市场日成交电价两种主要预测方法:统计法和神经网络法;并通过分析证明结合两种方法的预测是适合电力市场日成交电价的计算和分析。预测模型对发电商的报价决策系统具有较高的参考价值。
The electricity mechanism reform in china brings challenge among independent power providers. Independent power providers are faced with how to quote and to gain the highest profit . Forecasting market clearing price is an important index and has a significant meaning to theindependent power providers. This paper mainly introduces two methods ： statistics and neuron network, by which we can forescast the daily clearing price of electricity market, and make an analysis and comparision through case. The possibility of forescast combined with these two methods is verified by analysis. It will be an important reference to make the bidding price decision for independent power providers.
出处
《计算机仿真》
CSCD
2005年第7期57-59,共3页
Computer Simulation
关键词
电力市场
日成交价预测
报价决策
Electricity market
Daily clearing price forescast
Making the bidding price
