摘要
应用考虑震级不确定性和资料完整性估计地震危险性参数的极大似然法，分别采用１９４０年和１０７０年至１９９３年完整的地震资料，计算了汾渭地震带及陕南地区的地震危险性参数。结果表明：利用近几十年来的完整地震资料结合研究区历史上发生的最大地震，可以得到较为可靠的地震危险性参数，参数敏感性分析表明，完整震级不确定性对β的影晌较小；随震级不确定性的增大地震年发生率减小；在资料完整的前提下，震级下限在一定范围内对结果的影响较小。
In this paper, by adopting maximum likehood medthod of estimation of seismic hazard parameters considered the magnitude uncertainty and the complete data, using complete data from 1940 to 1993 and from 1970 to 1993, the seismic hazard parameters of Fen-Wei seismic belt and Southern of Shanxi Province were calculated. The results show that when we combine complete instrument records with historic maximum earthquake ocurring in research region, more reasonable results can be obtained. The sensitivity analysis also shows that instrument records uncertainty has not seriously affected on β and activity rate γ decrease with the increase of magnitude uncertainty. Under the complete data, low limit of magnitude has a little influence on the results within certain range.
出处
《华南地震》
1995年第4期43-48,共6页
South China Journal of Seismology
基金
地震科学联合基金
关键词
地震
危险性分析
敏感性分析
地震数据
Seismic risk analysis
Seismic hazard parameters
Sensitivity analysis
Complete data
