摘要
通过１１年的３～１０月的逐日资料，计算出五层季节模式各模式层上沿高斯纬圈的各要素逐候多年平均的资料集。并对Ｔ、ｕ、ｕ、ｑ、ｐ场沿高斯纬圈的平均值用对应的气候值进行干预，改进了模式的季节预报结果。文中对比了试验＜Ｂ＞（用改进方法）与试验＜Ａ＞（不含改进方法）的验证结果，表明在第１个预报月之后，试验＜Ｂ＞比试验＜Ａ＞有较明显的改进。对于Ｒ值，在北半球，尤其在东半球范围内有了明显的改进，试验＜Ｂ＞比试验＜Ａ＞在第２和第３个预报月分别提高１４％和１１％，Ｅ＿ｆ分别减少６ｇｐｍ和１８ｇｐｍ。
Utilizing the ECMWF objective analysis data covering the period from 1980 to1990,the data set pentad by pentad averaged by 11 years data for the five-level seasonalmodel in the lavers and on the Gaussian latitudes can be computed and can be used toprocess model’s quasi-horizontal boundary values for improving the seasonalforecasting。In this paper, the experiments B(with the improving method)and A(without theimproving method ) are performed in 90-day forecasting,respectively。After the firstmonth prediction the results from experiment B are better than from A. For theexperiment B,the anomaly correlation coefficients R in the Northern Hemisphere for thesecond, third months are higher than that for the experinlent A by 0.04 and 0.06,respectively- For the Eastern Hemisphere,the R values are increased by 0.14、0.11,respectively。The root mean square error E_f was decreased by 6 gpm and 18 gpm,respectively。
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第A01期116-122,共7页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
基金
<长期天气预报理论和方法研究>课题资助
