摘要
本文通过对人民币升值预期和压力形成原因及性质的逐一分析,指出:人民币升值与我国的实际经济发展水平、消费水平、产业结构、就业状况和社保条件等并不协调,即人民币升值缺少经济基本面的支持。但从贸易与外资惊人增长、国际收支双顺差和外汇储备急剧增加等方面来看,人民币又确实面临升值压力。这一悖异结果的形成原因是政策、体制性因素,而并非一般市场经济规律使然。说明人民币升值具有很高的“虚拟性”,即“升值泡沫”,而且粗放型贸易增长和诸多传统贸易发展观念愈发凸现了这种“虚拟性”。所以需要标本兼治:近期应着力调整贸易发展战略和增长方式,完善人民币汇率形成机制;中长期应以转变观念为切入点,以结构调整为主线,遵循市场经济规律来深化改革、规范政策,全面落实科学发展观。
This paper analyses the causes and expectation of RMB appreciation so as to reach the conclusion that RMB appreciation is not in conformity with the real economic situation in China. That is, our economic fundamentals do not support RMB appreciation. Meanwhile considering the rapid growth of foreign trade, FDI inflow, favorable balance of payments and foreign exchange reserve, there is a pressure to appreciate RMB. The paradox is essentially derived from institutional and policy factors rather than the general law of market economy. It explains the virtual appreciation of RMB. Moreover, the extensive trade growth and traditional concepts of trade development just sharp the problem. So both of the root and the symptoms should be taken into consideration: in the short term, we should try to adjust the strategy of trade development and the mode of growth, improve the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate; in the medium-and-long-term, we must give priority to conception change and structure adjustment, following the market economic law to deepen the reform, regulate policies and fulfill the all-around scientific development conception.
出处
《复旦学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第4期21-32,共12页
Fudan Journal（Social Sciences）
关键词
人民币升值
虚拟性
贸易战略
增长方式
调整转变
RMB appreciation
virtual
trade strategy
mode of growth
adjustment and transformation
