摘要
针对武器装备研制过程中技术风险的复杂性和难以量化的问题,提出了一种定性与定量相结合的技术风险综合评估模型。阐述了武器装备项目研制过程中的各类风险及其相互关系,探讨了武器装备研制项目技术风险的概念与内涵。重点介绍了一种基于风险因子模糊评价法的技术风险评估模型,并给出了详细的评估过程和步骤。结合一个航空预研项目进行了实证研究,并用等风险曲线图直观描述了项目的风险状况。
In view of the technical risk's is complexity and quantitative difficulty in the process of weapon system development (WSD), a qualitative and quantitative integrated model for technical risk appraisal is given. First, main risks in the process of WSD and the relationship among them are analyzed. The concept and meaning of the technical risk in WSD are discussed. Then, a fuzzy appraisal model for technical risk based on risk factor evaluation method is described in detail, and the appraisal processes are introduced. Finally, a risk analysis for aircraft R and D project is made, and the whole system's risk status is illustrated by equi-risk contour chart.
出处
《系统工程与电子技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第6期1123-1127,共5页
Systems Engineering and Electronics
基金
航空科学基金资助课题(02J51074)
