摘要
本文提出应用隶属函数的条件概率法综合判别雹云。该方法把雹云和非雹云视作参数的模糊集合,因而在综合判别式中,每个参数对雹云和非雹云都有一个隶属度。利用成都市1982～1987年天气雷达回波历史资料,分别建立了全年、4～6月和7～8月的雹云等强对流天气的综合判别式,并用建立的模式对成都市1990年4～6月的7个强对流天气个例作试报检验。结果表明用该方法建立不同地区和不同季节的雹云等强对流天气综合判别式是可行的。
This paper investigates a comprehensive recognition of hail cloud by using membership function-conditional probability method. The approach takes hail and thunder storm cloud as two fuzzy sets of parameters ,and focuses that the 0 and 1 values of each parameter in recognition calculation of hail cloud with comprehensive probability method are replaced with its membership degrees for hail and thunder storm cloud. According to three kinds of instance in 4-6, 7-8 months and whole year, the comprehensive recognition formulae of hailstorm cloud were established respectively, with weather radar echoe data during 1982-1987 in Chengdu. The recognition formula is used to forecast test for 7 hailstorm cloud cases during 4-6 months in 1990 in Chengdu. The results show that the comprehensive recognition formulae of hailstorm cloud established by this method are effective.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
1994年第1期62-69,共8页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家气象局气象科学基金
关键词
隶属函数
雹云
条件概率
Hail cloud index Hail cloud recognition Membership function
