摘要
开展清洁发展机制(CDM)项目活动可促进中国的可持续发展。为了研究未来全球碳市场的情况,分析了为实现《京都议定书》目标附件I国家所需的碳减排量以及主要国家或地区碳边际减排成本曲线,开发了一种国际合作碳减排机制模型。该模型能处理完全竞争以及前苏联与东欧、中国、印度等垄断的碳市场结构。结果表明:中国、印度具有全球总CDM潜力的70%左右,若形成寡头垄断,则对碳市场有重要影响;各种可能的碳市场结构下,2010年碳排放均衡价格在0～66美元.t-1之间,全球和中国的CDM以碳计的排放潜力分别在0～210Mt和0～120Mt之间。因此,中国应抓紧时机在提高能源效率、开发新能源与可再生能源以及回收利用甲烷和煤层气等重点领域积极开展CDM项目活动。
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects can help promote China's sustainable development. This paper presents an analysis of the carbon reduction requirements for Annex I Parties to achieve the Kyoto Target and the marginal abatement cost curves in different regions, to develop a model of international cooperation mechanisms for carbon reduction. The model can simulate the perfect competition and an oligopoly carbon market. The model was used to simulate the carbon market in the first commitment period with consideration of different possible market structures including perfect competition, the former Soviet Union's oligopoly, and a cooperation or non-cooperation oligopoly of China and India. The results show that China and India together share around 70% of the global CDM potential, so they can have a large impact on the market. In year 2010, the equilibrium carbon market price will be in the range of 0～66 USD·t^-1, with global CDM potentials varying from 0 to 210 Mt carbon equivalence and China's CDM potentials varying from 0 to 120 Mt carbon equivalence. With such large CDM potentials, China should actively implement CDM projects in high priority fields such as energy efficiency improvement, development of new and renewable energy sources, and recovery and utilization of methane and coal bed methane.
出处
《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第6期854-857,共4页
Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)
基金
国家"十五"科技攻关项目(2001-BA611B-05-03)
关键词
清洁发展机制(CDM)
完全竞争
寡头垄断
碳减排潜力
碳均衡价格
clean development mechanism (CDM)
perfect competition
oligopoly
carbon reduction potentials
carbon equilibrium price
