摘要
以美国债券市场最活跃最重要的基准债券10年期国债收益率为例的分析表明,近段时间美元长期利率在美联储连续加息的背景下明显降低至非常低的水平且与历史趋势相背离。美元长期利率低企的主要原因包括美国经济增长放缓、通货膨胀预期降低、长期债券供给减少以及结构性因素等。影响美元长期利率走势的因素分析表明,今后美元长期利率还仍将在低位徘徊一段时间。
The analysis taking the most active and most important 10-year treasury yield in American bond market as example shows that recent USD long-term interest rate reduces very obviously to low level and deviates from historical trend with the fact that American Federal Reserve committee increases the interest in succession. The main reasons for the decline of USD long-term interest rate include the slowly growth of the American economy, the reducing of the inflation expectation, the reducing of long-term bond supply and structural factors, etc. The factor influencing the trend of the dollar long-term interest rate shows that the USD long-term interest rate will stay in the low position for some time in the future.
出处
《广东金融学院学报》
2005年第3期24-31,共8页
Journal of Guangdong University of Finance
基金
国家社会科学基金项目(NO.04BJL027)。
