摘要
本文探讨了贝叶斯定理及其推广在工程建设项目中的应用。在工程建设项目中,各种风险会随时出现,不了解风险的存在形式,很难进行风险管理。贝叶斯方法提供了一种有效的风险预测手段,能够将主观估计与客观估计结合起来,并能随着资料的不断增加而不断进行预测,使得预测更加精确,有利于工程建设项目的动态风险管理。
The thesis discuss the application of Bayes Theorem and its generalization on construction project. In construction project,all kinds of risks will appear at any moment. Not knowing the form of trsks,it’s difficult to manage risks. Bayes method provide an effective way to forecast risks, which can band personality and impersonality together and forecast risks in time with the continuous increase in information. In this way, the forecast will be more accurate,which is in favor of dynamic risk management in construction project.
出处
《数理统计与管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第3期10-14,共5页
Journal of Applied Statistics and Management
