摘要
现行的汛限水位方法一般未能考虑预报信息,因而严重制约了水库汛期兴利效益的发挥。通过对实时调度中的可接受风险的研究,在调度期内控制防洪风险在可接受水平内;讨论实时调度与传统汛限水位之间的关系,由调度末水位耦合汛限水位,由此建立了带有机遇约束的水库汛限水位实时动态控制模型。结合三峡水库围堰发电期的汛期调度,进行了实例研究,结果表明,在不同的预报来水以及预报精度情况下,水库汛限水位实时动态控制模型能在不降低防洪标准的前提下,显著提高水库的兴利效益。
The currently adopted flood limit water level does not consider forecasting information, which constrains economic benefits of reservoir during the flood season. After explained the real-time acceptable risk, the relationship between the real-time reservoir operation and the flood limit water level was discussed. A Real-time dynamic control model including chance constraints was developed then. The Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) was chosen for the case study and the optimal results indicated that the water level of TGR can change dynamically in the condition of forecasting inflow. It is shown that the proposed model can greatly improve hydropower benefit under the condition of unchanging design flood standards.
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2005年第1期8-11,21,共5页
Water Power
基金
水利部重大科研项目<水库设计运用专题研究>
三峡开发总公司资助项目(CT-02-06-09)
关键词
汛限水位
动态控制
风险分析
机遇约束
水库调度
flood limit water level
control dynamically
risk analysis
chance constraints
reservoir operation
