摘要
在常规的天气分析基础上,尝试用事件概率回归方法来预报咸阳机场辐射雾的消散,以实现雾消预报的定量化。选取咸阳机场1 992～2 0 0 2年95个辐射雾日样本资料,进行事件概率回归分析。入型条件为:早晨0 6时(北京时)咸阳机场有辐射雾(能见度≤70 0m) ,考虑4小时内辐射雾消散与否的概率。因子的选取根据因子间及因子与预报量间的相关系数决定,所求回归方程经F检验是显著的。预报效果经回报与试报,准确率达到78%以上。
Based on the synoptic routine analysis, a regression estimation of event probabilities to forecast scatter of radiation fog at Xianyang Airport is developed. An analysis is made by selecting 95 events of radiation fog at 6:00 a.m. during the period from 1992 to 2002 and thinking over the probabilities of scatter of the radiation fog in 4 hours. The regression equation is significant on the statistic F-test, and the accuracy of returning-forecast and testing-forecast are over 78%.
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第4期81-84,共4页
Meteorological Monthly
