摘要
本文根据某地区历年来水稻稻瘟病发生程度的历史资料，应用马尔可夫链理论与方法，对该地区１９９１年～１９９５年该病害发生程度进行了预测。经分析比较，其结果与实际相符，而且预报时间早、简单易行。这表明马尔可夫链预测模型在农业病虫害预报乃至农业上各种灾变预报中应用的潜在价值。
This paper presents to MARKOV chain forecasting model and its application in the forecasting of agricultural plant diseases and insect.pests,by means of which,the disease degrees of the rice blast in some place during the following years have been forecasted based on its data in the previous years.The result proved to be reliable and reasonable.This indicates the model has great potentialies in the forecasting of every disease in agriculture.
关键词
马尔可夫链
预测模型
农业
病虫害
预报
Markov chain
Forecastins model
State vector
Transition probability matrix.
