摘要
根据复合极值分布理论,试用二项—对数正态复合极值分布,利用海上短期实测大风资料求算海面多年一遇极值风速,并以此作为基础值,以沿岸站长年代大风经验公式计算风速为订正值,基础值与订正值的叠加作为海面多年一遇工程设计风速。该方法计算结果与皮尔逊Ⅲ型、泊松—龚贝尔复合极值分布计算结果相近,较单纯由二项—对数正态分布计算稳定度增大。
According to the theory of complex extreme distribution,the extreme wind speed which re-curs once every several years over the sea is estimated.The calculation is supported with themethod of binomial log-normal distribution based on the short-term observations of maximumwind.The estimated value is considered as the basic value and calcultions with the empirical for-mula incorparating the long-term observations of the maximum coastal wind is taken as the cor-rected value.The recurrent wind speed for engineering design over the sea is derived by summingup the basic value and corrected one.The result of estimation is approximately equal to those withthe Person Ⅲ distribution and Poisson-Gumbel distribution and shows the greater stability thanthat derived from the binomial log-normal distribution.This method is more significant in estimat-ing the extreme wind speed when the long-term observations are deficient.
出处
《应用气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第1期105-111,共7页
Journal of Applied Meteorological Science
关键词
风速
极值
短期大风
资料
Binomial log-normal
Short-term maximum wind
Extreme wind correction
