摘要
本文根据沿江流域水(资源)环境状况,首先建立经济增长与水环境污染模型,运用单变量时序方法,研究污染指标等单变量数据与该地区的经济增长的内在相关度;其次,在分析江苏经济增长方式的条件下,建立新一轮增长周期下江苏总用水量Logistic预测模型,预测江苏用水趋势和走向;最后预测全省以及沿江八市的将来水资源所面临的问题,并提出合理的沿江开发水资源优化配置方案。
After analyzing the relation between economy and water resources, we advance a model of economic growth and environmental degradation according to water(resources)environmental conditions along the Yangtze River. We first study the intrinsic relativity between mono- variable data like pollution index and regional economic growth in method of multi- variable time serials. We then, on the analyses of economic growth style, establish a Logistic model to predict the usage of water in Jiangsu. Finally we anticipate the problems related to water resources that will be faced by Jiangsu Province and the eight cities along the Yangtze River and advance a solution of optimal allotment of water resources along the Yangtze River.
出处
《江苏大学学报（社会科学版）》
2005年第1期77-81,共5页
Journal of Jiangsu University(Social Science Edition)
基金
江苏省社会科学基金重点资助项目(2003-2)
关键词
水资源
经济增长
经济与环境关系计量模型
LOGISTIC模型
预测
water resources
economic growth
model of the relationship between economic growth and environment
Logistic model
forecast
