摘要
利用灰色控制框图分析了农业生物灾害的生态控制机制,在一张图上,明晰地展示出了生物灾害控制过程的诸因子及关系的生态位,理顺了其间因果关系,为微观分析起了定位作用。文章中采用状态结构模型对系统因子、关系及功能进行动态模拟。在对单个系统因子“涨落”变化分析的基础上,找出灾害发生的主导因子,逐级建模;同时,选定田间全息点,进行定时定位的全方位系统调查,不断吸收补充信息,阶段性地建模预报,直至确定防治指令。系统地预报大大提高了精度。在此研究的基础上,提出了以旱涝定位,以田间关键时期调查定指令的预测预报方法。可为每一田块,简便、准确地预报灾情。7年来用于棉虫预报,实践证明,方法可靠。
The grey control frame digram is used to analyse the ecological control mechanisms of agricultural bio-disasters in this paper. Many other factors and some related ecological positions in the controlling process of bio-disasters are shown in one giagram, whose cause and effect relations are also sorted out clearly, which plays a fixing-position role in the micro-analysis. The state structure model is used to conduct the dynamic simu lation of factors, relations and functions in the system. Based on the analysis of the 'rising and falling' variations in the factor of a single system, the dominant factors in the occurence of disasters are found out so as to establish the models gradually, while the holo-points in the fields is selected to carry out the full-azimuth investigations in order to absorb and suplement new information,to predict and establish models at different stages until the instructions are determined. The systematic prediction has greatly improved the accuracy. Based on this research, this paper puts forward a method of estimating and predicting the disasters, with drought and water log as fixed positions and the step field surveys as the instructions. The models can be used to predict the disaster situations of each cropfield quickly, simply and accurately. This method has also been proved reliable in practice in the past seven years.
出处
《西北大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
1993年第3期231-235,共5页
Journal of Northwest University（Natural Science Edition）
关键词
生物灾害
宏观分析
生态控制
农业
bio-disaster eco-system manegement macro-analysis state instructure model
