摘要
本文以陕西省部分道路为实例,采用专家系统与模糊数学相结合的方法,计算评定沥青路面的四个单项指标的权值及其隶属于不同路况等级的隶属度,得出从不同利益角度考虑的路面评价公式。利用GM(1,1)预测模型,对路面单项评价指标进行预测;按照Markov链过程的状态转移,预测路网路面状况,从而为决策者的长远规划提供了科学依据。以线性规划为基础,得出路面养护维修的长期最佳策略模型及在规划期各年使路网路面达到某一状态的最佳对策模型。
This paper using some road of shanxi province as an example, and specialist system and fuzzy mathematics as the mathods, calculates the right of the four targets of assessing as- phalt pavement and the subordinates to various road conditions, gets the assessing formulas of pavement from the profit views. By using the grey forecast model, predicts the single as- sessing target of pavement. According to the state changing of Markov process, predicts the pavement condition of road network and provide scientific basis for long-term programme of planning maker. Under the basis of linear planning, gets long-term and the best tactics mod- el of pavement maintenance, abtains the best strategy model to make the pavement of road network to reach the state in plan period.
关键词
沥青路面
公路养护机构
pavement administration system
grey forecast model
Markov process
linear planning
