摘要
In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recur- rence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquakes in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and consid- ering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the recurrence probability of MS≥6.7 earthquakes is about 0.035 in future 100 years along the Haiyuan fault.
The Haiyuan fault is a major strike-slip active fault in north-central China, along which Haiyuan earthquake with magnitude 8.5 occurred in 1920, and produced a 230 km long surface reupture zone with a maximum left-lateral displacement of 10 m. In recent years, some researchers have studied the paleoearthquake along the Haiyuan fault and revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events. All available information allows more reliable analysis of earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake rupture patterns along the Haiyuan fault. Based on this paleoseismological information, the recurrence probability and magnitude distribution for M≥6.7 earthquake in future 100a along the Haiyuan fault can be obtained through weighted computation, by using Poisson and Brownian passage time models and considering different rupture patterns. The result shows that the earthquake probability of M≥6.7 is about 0.035 in 100-years along the Haiyuan fault.
出处
《地震学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2004年第6期609-615,共7页
Acta Seismologica Sinica
基金
Joint Seismological Science Foundationof China (103034) and Major Research ″Research on Assessment of Seismic
Safety″ from China Earthquake Administration during the tenth Five-year Plan.
关键词
活动断裂
古地震
强震复发
震级分布
active fault
paleoearthquake
strong earthquake recurrence
magnitude distribution
