摘要
将三麦产量结构系统的建成看成是灰色动态过程,采用灰色系统理论的数据生成原理和建模方法,建立了三麦各产量要素趋势预测的GM(1,1)模型,并以此作为系统各中间环节的行为特征量,以产量作为最终输出,建立了产量趋势预测的GM(1,4)模型。经检验,模型的历史拟合率及试报精度都是令人满意的。
The construction of yield structural system of wheats is considered as a grey dynamic procedure. Based on the principle of data-generating and the method of model-building of grey system theory, the GM(1,1) models for predicting each yield component tendency are built. The GM(1,4) model is developed to describe the terminal yield, the output of the system in which all the yield components are comsidered as the internal characteristic variables. The result is satisfactory when the models are used to fit on historical data and to predict the outcoming yield component tendency.
出处
《上海农业学报》
CSCD
1993年第1期34-37,共4页
Acta Agriculturae Shanghai
关键词
元麦
小麦
产量
预测
灰色模型
Yield of wheats
Tendency prediction
Grey model
