摘要
目的 评估冬季气候变暖对海南省登革热流行潜势的影响程度。方法 利用海南省 8个气象站历年 1月份的月平均气温资料分析海南省冬季气候变暖的趋势和幅度。以 2 1℃作为适于登革热传播的最低温度 ,借助地理信息系统评估气候变暖对海南省登革热流行潜势的影响 ,并从虫媒与流行病学方向对其进行解释。结果 海南省冬季气温呈明显上升趋势。东方的气温上升幅度最大 ,为 1.4℃ ,珊瑚岛气温上升幅度最小 ,为 0 .5℃ ,其他各站的气温变幅大都在 0 .7～ 1.3℃之间。至2 0 5 0年 ,2 1℃等值线最大北移距离可达 190km左右 ,近乎跨越海南省南北距离的 6 / 7;在埃及伊蚊日存活率P =0 .89情况下 ,位于海南省北部的琼海也具备了登革热终年流行的气温条件。结论 冬季气候变暖将使海南省半数以上的地区到 2 0 5 0年将具备登革热终年流行的气温条件。相应地区也应注意加强冬季登革热的监测预防工作。
Objective Impact of climate warming in winter on the potential epidemics of dengue fever in Hainan was assessed. Methods Based on historic data of mean monthly temperature in January from 8 weather observation stations, tendency and amplitude of variation were analyzed. Using 21℃ as lowest limit of temperature suitable for dengue fever transmission, impact caused by climate warming on dengue fever epidemic was estimated by means of geography information system(GIS), insect vector and epidemiological features. Results Temperature in winter in Hainan province had shown an obvious increase. The maximum amplitude of increase appeared in Dongfang which was 1.4℃ and the minimum 0.5℃ in Shanhudao, but the increase amplitude in the other stations was varied from 0.7 to 1.3℃. By the year of 2050,21℃ contour will have moved 190 km or so northward,nearly spanned 6/7 of distance from south to north in Hainan province and under the condition of daily fraction surviving of Aedes aegypti as P= 0.89,Qionghai city which stands north in Hainan province will probably have become epidemic area of dengue fever all year round. Conclusion Climate warming in winter will probably make half or more of the areas in Hainan province with temperature that permitting transmission of dengue fever by 2050. Monitoring and prevention of dengue fever in winter should be emphasized.
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第1期25-28,共4页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
