摘要
运用灰关联原理对系统因素进行分析、聚类,解决了经济计量模型解释变量的选取问题;采用系统变量的GM(1,1)模拟值建立经济计量学模型,增强了模型系统的稳定性;以解释变量的GM(1,1)预测值作为内生变量预测的基础,提高了经济计量学模型预测的科学性;灰色预测与经济计量学模型预测相互印证,增进了预测结果的可靠性。灰色—经济计量学组合模型将灰色系统理论的思想、方法和模型融入经济计量学建模的全过程,实现功能互补,能够使预测精度得到大大提高。这种组合建模的思想方法已在河南省粮食生产系统分析及预测中进行了成功的应用。
Using the principle of grey incidence to analyse and cluster system factors, the anthors have solved the difficulty in selecting interpreting variables of econometrics model. Adopting the GM (1,1) simulated values of system variables to build the econometrics model, they have enhanced the stability of model system and heightened the accuracy of the predicted values that get from econometrics model. Confirming the predicted values with grey model, the authors have strengthened the reliability of the predicted outcome and blent the econometrics model-building process with the idea, method and models of grey system theory, complementing each other in function. The idea and method of combining model-building have been applied successfully in grain yield prediction of Henan Province.
出处
《河南农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
1993年第1期90-94,共5页
Journal of Henan Agricultural University
基金
国家自然科学基金
关键词
河南
计量学
粮食
产量
预测
Henan
metrology
grey predictions
grains
yield
mathematical model
