摘要
在经济全球化的背景下,蒙代尔 弗莱明模型的理论方法及其结论已逐渐成为各国制定宏观经济政策的实践基础。然而,我国的经济体制和实际情况与蒙代尔 弗莱明模型中的基本假设不完全相符,将蒙代尔 弗莱明模型的理论结论作为制定宏观调控政策的决策依据需要经过实践检验。本文基于向量误差修正模型,通过检验经济系统对各种结构冲击的响应,来评估蒙代尔 弗莱明模型对中国经济发展变化的预测能力,进而判断蒙代尔 弗莱明模型在中国的适用性。本文的经验分析结果显示,蒙代尔 弗莱明模型在中国是基本适用的。
In the globalization situation, Mundell-Fleming model has become an important tool for many countries, and many economic policies are based on its implications. However, Chinese economy system and its arrangement don't accord with the assumption of standard Mundell-Fleming model and we cannot copy an economic policy based on the model. By employing vector error correction model and testing the responses of the estimated model to the structural shocks, this paper has identified the sources of the recurrent fluctuations in Chinese economy and has assessed the empirical validity of the Mundell-Flaming model. Our empirical results give evidence to support Mundell-Fleming model.
出处
《预测》
CSSCI
2004年第5期23-26,64,共5页
Forecasting
基金
教育部重点研究基地重大资助项目(01JAZJD790003)
